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Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity
by Todd Elder
WP 2007-159
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- Individual’s subjective survival forecasts show bias relative to life table data. Many fail to account for increases in yearly mortality rates with age.
- Recent cohorts of the elderly do not appear to revise survival forecasts to match increases in longevity.
- Despite these shortcomings, subjective survival probabilities predict actual mortality and portfolio choice.
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