(UM07-21) - Forecasting Labor Force Participation and Economic Resources of the Early Baby-Boomers
Susann Rohwedder and Pierre-Carl Michaud
We propose to forecast the retirement patterns and resources of the Early Baby-Boomers by estimating forward-looking dynamic models of labor force participation, wealth accumulation and pension and Social Security benefit claiming for older workers using seven waves of HRS-data. The two most important innovations of our proposed approach are the use of alternative measures of pension entitlements and the associated incentives, and accounting for subjective expectations about future work. The forecasts will be informative to policy makers when considering reforms of Social Security or other government programs that affect the living standards of the elderly.