(UM11-05) - Evaluating Major Reforms in the Innovator Privatization Social Security System
Olivia S. Mitchell, Jere Behrman and David Bravo
A major means to improve the scientific basis for actual and prospective policy evaluation on Social Security is through systematic research on systems in other countries. Possibly the most interesting country to study is Chile, which has provided a laboratory for observing impacts of Social Security privatization. Chile has been a model for other countries. However, it has also been subject to criticisms regarding (1) low coverage rates and (2) low anticipated benefits for many. It initiated pension reform in 2008 to address these problems. We propose the first systematic evaluation of these reforms, using the 2006 and 2009 Social Protection Surveys and double- and triple-difference estimators to control for unobserved factors. The estimates will be informative for the United States and other countries considering innovations as in Chile.